Investment Updates
Will Rising Bond Yields Be Bad For Stocks?
Published Friday, February 23, 2018 at: 7:00 AM EST
Rising bond yields historically haven't been bad for stocks. While you may see stories in the financial press saying otherwise, the facts show that periods marked by rising bond yields have often coincided with bull markets in stocks. The red arrows point to five periods since the 1990s when the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply and stock prices also rose.
The key to stock prices and yields rising at the same time is the shape of the yield curve. That is the difference between long-term term bond yields and short-term interest rates. A negative yield curve is what has toppled stocks. When short term rates are higher than long-term yields, that is what hurts economic growth. The red circles show how the negative curve preceded the last three recessions. Currently, the yield curve is not near inversion, which is means the economic expansion eight-and-one-half year expansion could continue and the bull market in stocks could continue.
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