The Conference Board (TCB), the big business think tank that maintains the U.S. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), backed off its prediction for a recession in 2024. 

The LEI has been a highly reliable forward-looking indicator of a recession for many decades. Two years ago, after the LEI collapsed, TCB’s economics team predicted a recession would begin within months. However, the downturn never materialized. Nonetheless, TCB continued to predict a recession was ahead — until this past week.