Throughout most of 2023, the economy and stock market kept surprising economists and investors, repeatedly outperforming expectations, and 2024 is starting out by showing much the same pattern.

In early January, the 60 economists surveyed quarterly by The Wall Street Journal predicted a slowdown ahead, expecting the fourth quarter 2023 U.S. economic growth rate will come in at 1.65%, slow to 0.94% in the first quarter of 2024, and eke out a 0.55% growth rate in the second quarter before rebounding in the second half of this year.